Jan 30 2025
Imagine you are taking an exam. For each question, you must indicate your confidence level (from 1-10) next to your answer. If you set your confidence level 10 and fail to answer the question correctly, you fail the entire exam. And on the other hand, if you set your confidence level 10 and answer correctly, you pass the entire exam with just one question. Anything between will factor out and contribute to your final score.
Ready? Go!
How will you manage your confidence now? Do you rethink your answer? Or put what comes to your mind quickly?
Do you think "B" is the answer or challenge yourself to see other possibilities?
This is a perfect example of showing that being overconfident and at the same time being wrong hurts more than being right. Even if you think you are right, it kinda forces you to rethink what you know and verify it with a clear eye.
It gives you a deep understanding of how likely you want to take the risk.
When I learned this, it shocked me. I have never seen it put in this way.
Now, whenever I feel certain about something, I step back and ask myself: what if I am wrong? Is the worst-case scenario worth the risk? Or is it something I can take?